My research is at the intersection of
machine learning and economic history.

“The historical evidence [...] suggests that in order to understand institutional influences on long-run growth, economists need ways of characterizing the wider institutional system of which each institution is just one component [...] Our best hope of success at this task will be to combine the ability of economics to simplify everything as much as possible, with the ability of history to identify where the complexity of the data resists further simplification and tells us that better analytical tools must be devised” (Ogilvie and Carus 2014, p. 490).

With multimodal large language models we can build large-scale historical text data sets based on archival sources at faster speeds than ever before.

The past has happened. The data that survived is out there to be collected. As we are able to build larger datasets than ever before, the ability to ask the right questions becomes even more important.

With the new microlevel data abundance, we will be able to characterize the wider institutional system. We can go one level further in complexity: what made an institution inclusive or extractive in a particular region and how did this affect local economic growth?

Tools from machine learning, such as natural language processing and computer vision, will help us to measure the inclusivity and interactions of institutions on the new microlevel data. With these tools, we can transform qualitative textual sources into quantitative data (e.g., Carus and Ogilvie, 2009). Integrating these newly constructed variables into the standard toolkit in econometrics may enable us to better understand the latent mechanisms that intertwined institutions, culture and economic growth.

Papers under Review

Transplanting Craft Guilds to Colonial Latin America: A Large Language Model Analysis

with Sheilagh Ogilvie; currently under review at The Journal of Economic History

Papers in Progress

A New Historical Dataset for Machine Translation between Early German and English: Cross-Lingual Transfer, Many-Shot In-Context Learning, and Fine-Tuning

with Sheilagh Ogilvie, Jiayi Wang, Yao Lu, and Pontus Stenetorp; in preparation for submission in ACL

Multimodal Large Language Models for Layout Detection and Post-OCR Correction: German Business Directories from the 18th and 19th Centuries

with Gavin Greif